![]() ![]() Addressing these shortfalls requires acknowledging that some areas lack relevant previous experience, as well as implementing an effective lessons-to-be-learned process (e.g. As a result there is no body of evidence to assist in estimating the probability of occurrence of these novel risks. In other cases, even though a risk might have been encountered previously, there may be no record of its existence due to absence of a learning mechanism (such as a knowledge base or checklist). Some risks have never been experienced before, especially those relating to the unique aspects of projects. Sources of bias should also be understood and corrected where possible. The solution here is to take a team-based approach, exploring different perspectives, examining underlying assumptions, and reaching consensus wherever possible. Assessments of the uncertain future are influenced by many factors, including perceptual filters, motivational bias, cognitive bias, or Risk probability cannot be measured, only estimated. Different people will take different views about the future, and there is no “single right answer” since the future has not yet happened. Assessment of probability requires forming an opinion about a future event or set of circumstances which have not yet happened. This problem can best be overcome by education, as well as using a set of agreed definitions which everyone understands. Most people have problems interpreting different numerical formats, and even the textual phrases can mean different things. The uncertainty dimension of a risk can be expressed in several ways, including both numerical and textual formats, such as: 35%, 'once per month', 2:7, 'unlikely', 'one in six times', 10-4, 'low probability', 0.2, and so on. One solution is to use a more general term such as 'likelihood', and recognise two variants called 'probability' (for single events) and 'frequency' (for repeatable events). This is not the same as “probability” which is a statistical term describing how likely a single uncertain event or set of circumstances is So frequency really applies to repeatable events. once per year) or in a number of trials (e.g. For example “frequency” describes how often an event or set of circumstances is expected to occur based on previous experience, either in a period of time (e.g. In fact these do not mean the same thing, and confusion can arise if the terms are misused. In English, different words are often used interchangeably to describe the uncertainty dimension of a risk, such as 'probability', 'frequency', 'likelihood' or 'chance'. Risk practitioners and project teams alike experience repeated difficulty in assessing the probability that a given risk might occur. “If this risk occurred, what would the effect be?” Probability is not so easy however. It is relatively simple to assess effect on objectives, since this merely requires defining the situation after the risk has occurred, and then imagining what happens: It is common to use the terms 'probability' and 'impact' to describe these two dimensions, and assessing the significance of any given risk means considering both. Risk is defined in two dimensions: uncertainty and effect on objectives. Who owns project management in your company?.How good are you at starting a project?.Is functional hierarchy fit for modern business.Functional thinking destroys business value.The darkside of robotic project management.Minimum viable bureaucracy - not an oxymoron.Is management by exception a pipe dream?.Gated assurance protects strategic objectives.The human side of business case management.What does a PMO need to know about Agile?.Getting a change initiative back on course.Getting to grips with the business case.What can we learn from 1,300 lessons learned?.Don't try to define 'project' and 'programme'.Time to drop quality from project management.The human side of earned value management.Projects, programmes, portfolios and the discontinuous mind.Sensitivity analysis in resource scheduling.Helping the manager-sponsor relationship.Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.Are all guides based on the same life cycle?.4 types of estimator and 9 golden rules. ![]()
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